The 3^rd Annual TRENSETTERS draft kicked off right after the Super Bowl started. It is a 14 team Draft Champions fantasy football league made up of diehards like myself. It’s a league that is made public via the NFFC message boards, so feel free to check out other teams comments there. I am the defending champ, thanks to players like Drew Brees, Wes Welker, Jordy Nelson and Victor Cruz. I remember taking Jordy Nelson in the 6^th round and a slew of negative comments followed. I can understand, drafting in February, how some might not have liked the Nelson pick, but I know what I saw in the Super Bowl and knew that Donald Driver role would be diminishing, 6^th round was right for securing one of “my guys”. Someone is going to hit paydirt with a Nelson or Victor Cruz type this year, just hope it is me!

For those unfamiliar with the Draft Champions (or in some circles, the Draft Masters) format, the team you draft is the team you have from Weeks 1-16. No free agent pick-ups, the computer optimizes your line-up (in other words, you do not set starting line-ups) and total points determine the winner. Draft Champions leagues (DCs) are usually 24-26 rounds, because a deep bench is needed with no FA pick-ups. This DC is 30 rounds and I love it. The deeper the draft, the more chances I have to take stabs at sleepers.   I enjoy these leagues, not only because of the number of rounds, but also they are great for those of us that have multiple leagues.

This year I drew the 11 hole, I wanted to be near the back of the draft because this league uses 3RR (3^rd Round Reversal), which means it snakes Rounds 1 and 2, but in the 3^rd, it reverses to the end of the draft (Team 14) for the beginning of that round.

ROUND 1 COMMENTS

No surprise as to the Top 3, you can make an argument for the order if inclined, but that is how my Top 3 looks right now. 4 hole goes Calvin Johnson, nothing wrong with taking the best WR at 4, especially given the murky RB choices after the Top 3. Aaron Rodgers goes 5^th overall. I like the pick and here we see the changing landscape of fantasy football. Just last year not many folks were taking a QB in the first round (in 1 QB leagues, with 4 point and 6 point per TD leagues, no distance bonus). I like the pick, which is what I would have done. You get 6 points per TD in this league and since it is a DC, it’s good to lock a QB in early. Drew Brees follows and then Tom Brady at 7^th overall. Not loving the 7^th position, almost have to force a pick here. Not loving the Brady pick (but not hating it, just that there is a lot of wear on his arm and he does have a shoulder injury). Not really a WR I like here and the only RB I like at this spot is MJD. It is decided, I do not want the 7^th pick in my drafts as of right now. 8^th pick goes MJD and 9^th follows with Matt Forte. 2 years I went all-in on Forte and he burned me. I stayed away from him last year and will do the same if I have to pay a 9^th overall price. I will say this much, with the way the Bears ran him into the ground last year, if I were the Forte owner, I’d be jumping on Kahil Bell a few rounds earlier than his ADP. 10^th overall we see the 2^nd WR come off the board in Andre Johnson. While I do not dispute Johnson’s talent, the past two seasons he has not played 16 games. He didn’t even rank in the Top 50 of WRs last year. The risk/reward is too much for me here. 

1.11, my pick: It was between 4 players for me: Ryan Mathews, Cam Newton, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. With Rob Benetti picking before me in Round 2, I knew Mathews would never make it back and I thought I had a slim chance that one of the other three would make it. I was very high on Mathews coming into the league 2 years ago and very disappointed his rookie season was such a bust. But, he rebounded nicely last year, the 6^th best RB in this format in 2011, and with Norv Turner coming back and Mike Tolbert not, I feel he could crack the Top 5.

The 12^th and 13^th picks of the 1^st round are another example of the fantasy football landscape changing, two TEs go back to back! So much for one of them making it back to me. I really like both picks, among RB/WR/TEs last year, Wes Welker had 324.8 points in this scoring format and Gronk had 300.1. I think you can easily build a team around any TE that is giving you WR numbers. Closing out the 1^st round, last year’s Top WR, Wes Welker goes at 1.14.

6 Runningbacks went, 3 Quarterbacks went, 3 Wide Receivers and 2 Tight Ends went in the 1^st round. The times, they are a changin’.

ROUND 2 COMMENTS

Chris Johnson starts off the 2^nd round, not sure I would go there, but I don’t fault the pick. CJ is an upside pick and hopefully he can re-capture the magic he use to have. What with the lockout, then hold out and a new offensive scheme, it was no surprise CJ had an off year (I owned him on zero of my 44 teams last year and that say a lot, because I love me some CJ!). Despite his alarming number of drops, Roddy White was still the 3^rd best scoring WR last season in this format. Liquid Hippos gobbles him up at 2.2, I like the pick. And despite no QB to speak of, Larry Fitzgerald was the 6^th best WR last season and Ted’s Cracked Head pairs him with Gronk.

2.4, my pick: I take Cam Newton, who I considered taking in the 1^st round. Very happy he was there. Hard to pass on WRs like Jennings and Nicks, but I want a stud QB. After Matthew Stafford, there is a drop-off at QB in my rankings. Do I think Newton will get 14 rushing TDs next season, doubtful, but he will get 8-10 rushing TDs and hopefully increase his passing TDs in his second season. I foresee no sophomore slump!

Brandon Marshall goes 2.5, I have to think this is in part due to the Peyton Manning rumors and coaching change. Marshall is too much of a knucklehead and un-focused for me to take him ahead of the likes of Greg Jennings and Hakeem Nicks, heck, I might even take A.J. Green over Marshall. Pick 2.6 and I see Darren McFadden still has fantasy owners hoodwinked. DMac has NEVER played a 16 game season…NEVER.

Matthew Stafford is the 5^th QB taken off the board at 2.7. Stafford was my “Value Pick of the Year” in our draft kit and he delivered. Maybe less pass attempts next year, as DET know they need a running game to keep opponent’s offenses on the sidelines. I like the pick here and “Follow Me” starts MJD & Stafford, nice! Terrific WR value in the middle of the 2^nd round as Hakeem Nicks and Greg Jennings go next. “Bald Is Beautiful” dashes any hopes of Sproles making it back to me when the 3^rd round reverses. Rodgers and Sproles is another nice combo to start with. “Kentucky Thunder” pairs Megatron with A.J. Green. I loved what I saw of Green last season and if you want Green, the end of the 2^nd is maybe where you have to take him. Not sure I would have went with him here if I already owned Calvin, but there is something to be said for taking best available player.

One question a lot of folks had at the end of the season is where will Victor Cruz go next year? If this draft he went 2.12, 4 picks after Nicks and before Mike Wallace and Jordy Nelson. What a difference a year makes. I like the pick, we here at FFF had Cruz on our sleeper list last year and he helped me win this league…just sorry he didn’t make it to the 3^rd round. Mike Wallace follows and Michael Vick ends Round 2. Hard for me to trust Vick after last season, OL woes and his inability to protect his body have me concerned.

ROUND 3 COMMENTS

My “guy” Jordy Nelson goes first in the 3^rd round (remember, it reverses back to Team 14 for the 1^st pick of the 3^rd round). Marques Colston follows, I’m not sure how many of my teams Colston will be on…just a gut feel, but I don’t trust him (injury wise). Tremendous value alert up next in the form of Jamaal Charles at 3.3. He almost fell to me! I get he is coming off a major knee injury, but I’ll roll the dice on his recovery at 3.3.

3.4, my pick: A Top 10 WR last year, Percy Harvin is my selection. A full off-season with Ponder should help both QB & WR, plus Harvin might be needed more if AP misses a few games to start the season.   And as I write this, HC Leslie Frazier states that Harvin will be on the field even more in 2012. Miles Austin was a consideration, but he is too injury prone. I also liked Kenny Britt, but injuries were a concern for me here too, although I love Britt’s upside. Folks will shy away from Harvin because of the QB situation (let’s face it Ponder is not a stud) and his history of migraines. I think Harvin could be a sneaky stud though if the Vikings keep finding ways to get him the ball. He was on the field 57.9% of offensive snaps in 2011 and Frazier has said that will increases, so we have to assume his production will also. Harvin is a WR who came in second to Wes Welker in one of my favorite catergories, YAC (Yards After Catch), he had 616 YAC yards. Sexy pick, nope, sneaky solid pick, yes!

Steve Smith follows, for half a second I thought about getting the hook-up (Newton to Smith), but I tend to side with youth. I would have taken Smith as my WR2 if the opportunity was there. “AZ Rich” takes his 3^rd RB, Steven Jackson! Wow, I couldn’t do that, I would have wanted to pair Forte and DMac with a WR here. Julio Jones goes off the board and I like him. I don’t like him in the 3^rd round as my first WR, but it could work out, big upside with the way he can run after the catch.

DeMarco Murray has dethroned “Pussy” Jones! “Route C’ has Brady, Nicks and Murray. If Murray can play 16 games, this is a solid start. Miles Austin goes 3.9, followed by “Rookie 1”. We have a separate rookie draft a few months from now and “Bald Is Beautuiful” just landed himself Trent Richardson I would guess. I couldn’t take the first rookie here, bad memories of Mark Ingram! Dwayne Bowe is taken next, meaning “Kentucky Thunder” now has three WRs: Calvin, A.J. Green and Bowe. I want more balance, but given what was out there at other positions, I get the pick (although I would have taken a different WR). Jeremy Maclin (this is the WR I would have taken over Bowe) and Marshawn Lynch are next off the board. I didn’t like Lynch last year and I don’t like him again this year. I was WRONG last year and might be wrong again this year, but I just don’t like him. He’s going to get a fat contract, he has had off the field issues and plays on a not so good team….that is why I don’t like him. I do like Skittles though. Kenny Britt closes out Round 3. Britt could be a monster this year, very nice upside pick.

ROUND 4 COMMENTS

“Hammerheads” ended Round 3 with Britt and started Round 4 with Dez Bryant. When Miles Austin went down, it wasn’t Dez that stepped into the role as Romo’s favorite target, if was Laurent Robinson. That says all you need to know! I loved Dez’s upside going into 2011, but he doesn’t do the little things or big things that it takes to be a stud WR in the NFL. Tremendous talent, but lacks the intangibles. Vincent Jackson goes next and we have no idea what team he will play for…this makes me nervous (rumors are TB). I also think his drinking problems keep him from reaching his full potential. But, 4^th round is a good place to take him. And he does have talent. Stevie Johnson goes 4.3, will getting the big contract he wanted make him lose his motivation? The stud WR team (Calvin, Green and Bowe) takes Eli Manning next. I like it and there are two other QBs taken in Round 4 that I like, making it a nice value round for QBs. Antonio Brown goes 4.5 and even though Bruce Arians is no longer in Pitt, I still like Brown’s chances to repeat his great season.

I’ve done two money drafts this year already and each time Shonn Greene is selected, there are comments about this “being his year!” His year should have been 2 years ago and it wasn’t! The Jets O-line isn’t what it once was and McKnight and Powell will challenge Greene. He is the 15^th RB taken in this draft and I’d bet there will be 5-7 RBs at season’s end that finish higher than Greene.

Aaron Hernandez is off the board! Dangit!!! Brandon Lloyd, Tony Romo and Phillip Rivers all follow.

4.11, my pick: Vernon Davis is now my TE. I would have taken Hernandez over VD if I had the choice. I love the way Davis came on in the play-offs. He’s always been talented, but something may have finally clicked.

Michael Crabtree, Matt Ryan and Ahmad Bradshaw close out the round. Surprisingly, Matt Ryan was the 6^th best QB in this scoring last season. Still, I would have taken him begruddingly here, as just a few picks earlier Romo and Rivers went. A new OC does bode well for Ryan, as does White and Jones as targets. How much longer can Bradshaw play on bad wheels? I think this every year…

ROUND 5 COMMENTS

Round starts off with TE Jason Witten, which is right about where he should go. Next up is WR Demaryius Thomas, a pick I would not have made. Team 13, “Liquid Hippos”, has an absolute stud TE, Jimmy Graham, to start his team, then a stud WR, Roddy White, followed by WR Marques Colston and Matt Ryan. That is a pretty darn good start. But the wheels fall off for me with the Thomas pick. First, while there is no denying Thomas’ talent, he only averaged 6.7 targets in 2011 with a reception rate of 48.3%. Such a poor reception rate and arguably, with Tim Tebow throwing you the ball, you aren’t going to have a high rate, but still, he should be over 50%! There are plenty of WRs that “Hippos” could take a few rounds later that have upside and that I feel will perform just as well as Thomas. I would have went RB or doubled up at QB /TE here.

Rookie 2 is off the board. It’s pretty open as to where Team 12, “Ted’s Cracked Head” will go. My lean would be QB or RB.

5.4, my pick: I’m looking either WR or RB here. Since I don’t see any WRs I am comfortable with value wise, I take Fred Jackson. I might have been able to wait another round, but I like Fred Jackson and do not want to chance he could come off the board. Who knows how drafts will shape up after a few pre-season games, C.J. Spiller could well come off the board before Jackson. I’m not a huge Spiller fan and neither were the Bills until FJax got hurt, I mean they had him lined up at WR in 2011! Before Jackson got hurt, he was averaging 19.1 points a game (and this in a .5 PPR for RB scoring format that the NFFC was…I say was, because they look to be going full PPR for RBs in 2012). Do I think Jackson will put up those numbers in 2012, no, not unless Spiller gets hurt (which is a real possibility given his size and running style). But, I will happily take 12-15 points per game from my RB2.

Frank Gore goes next and many of you may wonder why I didn’t take Gore over Jackson. Erase the names and look at the numbers. Runningback A had 282 rushing attempts for 121 yards and 8 TDs, plus 17 receptions for 114 yards. He had 186 fantasy points and averaged 11.6 points per game. Runningback B had 170 attempts for934 yards and 6 TDs, plus 39 receptions for 442 yards. He had 191.1 fantasy points and averaged 19.1 points per game. Obviously RB-B is Fred Jackson and was far more productive with less attempts than Gore. I don’t trust Gore this year, just a gut feel, but I trust that feel (so much so that I drafted Kendall Hunter in the 9^th round).

Folks are starting to take their second QB in this round, as Big Ben and Matt Schaub both go in this round. Then Team 2 takes his first QB, Peyton Manning. Peyton is a gamer and wants to play next year, but at what cost? What if he sustains another neck injury? I also have my doubts feeling in his throwing hand will be back to what it once was, meaning Manning won’t be what he once was. Huge risk taking Manning here, one I would not do (I’m very doubtful that he plays again). Jumping to Round 6, Team 2, “Glenneration X”, then selects Tim Tebow. He might be stuck with no starting QB with either of those picks! John Elway is not a Tebow fan and will eventually get his type of QB in there. Will it happen this year? Will it be Peyton? I’m a Peyton fan, so I am rooting for him to get back to 100% health, just not sure he can. It will be interesting to see where he lands and where his arm is at coming training camp.

Roy Helu went at pick 5.11 as Team 4’s first RB. There are about 4-5 RBs I would take over Helu at this point. I don’t trust Mike Shannahan (who does?) and Helu missed time last year (and it wasn’t like he was RB1 from Week 1). And what to do with Peyton Hillis? Team 3 “Coltsfan” took him right after Helu and I think the 5^th or 6^th round is an okay place to take a stab at him, although I will NEVER draft him again, as he takes the meaning of “Pussy” to an entirely new level. As of the draft, we are not even sure what team he will play for. Jermichael Finley ends Round 5 and I feel that is pretty good value for a TE with his upside.

ROUND 6 COMMENTS

Round 6 for Adrian Peterson, I’d throw that dart. Even if he misses 3 games to start the season, it’s worth a shot with his talent. Team 1 could afford to take that risk with having Arian Foster on his team. 

Last year Fred Davis was going around the 12^th round, now he is a 6^th rounder. Certainly has the talent and maybe the Redskins will upgrade at QB. Have to think they could make a play for RG3 and who is a rookie’s best friend…. His TE! Mikel Leshoure goes next and he was one of “my guys” during the pre-season. I was taking him around the 6^th round last year and 6^th seems a good place this year, especially now, since we don’t know if he will be ready training camp or if Jahvid Best will be ready. Team 6 gets Reggie Bush at 6.6. Bush finished the 2011 season as the 6^th best RB in this scoring format. What is not to like with the value Team 6 “BillyWaz” just nabbed?

Tony Gonzalez goes at 6.8. I was surprised when I looked up his stats in 2011 and he had a quiet 80/875/7…wow! Expect some drop off as Julio Jones looks to get even more involved, but Gonzo will still be a wicked red zone target and safety valve for Matt Ryan. Jonathan Stewart goes next. I still don’t understand why Carolina re-signed DeAngelo Williams last year. JStew can carry the load and Carolina could have traded him in 2010. Now they have 2 RBs that are a lot alike, plus a running QB. Head scratcher. I do like the Stewart pick at 6.9, but do not like that it is Team 9’s “AZ Rich” fourth RB. His team make-up is 4 RBs and 2 QBs. Worried about balance.

6.11, my pic: I go Michael Bush, banking that Oakland will not re-sign him and he can go be a RB1 for someone like Cleveland. He ranked 11^th among RBs in 2011 and there is no reason if he goes to another team to start, that he doesn’t crack the Top 10 in 2012.

A flourish of QBs finish the 6^th round, as Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton all go. Normally you won’t see these QBs go so early or teams taking 2 QBs, but we need to remember this is a Draft Champions, no free agent pick-ups. QBs get gobbled up quick!

So ends the first six rounds.  I wrote the majority of this a few weeks back, but am now just posting it, March 13th...the first day of free agency.  It will be interesting to see where players land, especially the BIG fish Peyton Manning.